6 2026 Oscar Predictions After Sundance 2025

The 2025 Oscars are right around the corner, but after being at the Sundance Film Festival
, we’re thinking ahead to what 2026 will look like for potential nominees. Sundance has long been a launch pad for independent filmmakers and movies to be picked up for distribution. In years past, films like Past Lives, Brooklyn, and CODA, the latter two both won Best Picture, have been nominated in multiple categories.

There were several strong films at the festival this year that will likely garner attention as they’re picked up and marketed to a larger audience and Oscars voters. There are plenty of individual performances and screenplays that have garnered attention and have the potential to make it all the way to next year’s race.

6

Train Dreams

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Best Picture; Best Actor

Train Dreams is one of the best films to come out of 2025’s edition of Sundance and one of the only to nab a distribution deal. Netflix picked up the Clint Bentley-directed Joel Edgerton film, which is based on the lyrical novella by Denis Johnson. Even before its deal, though, it seemed Train Dreams could be earning praise come awards season.

Joel Edgerton’s central performance as Robert Granier is subtle yet masterful, praised as one of his best yet. Adolpho Veloso’s cinematography has been compared to Terrence Malick films. It’s concise but grandiose, a fitting adaptation in Bentley and co-writer Greg Kwedar’s script.

Now, all of that has the backing of awards behemoth Netflix. Although the streamer has yet to nab a Best Picture win (and it doesn’t look like it will be doing that anytime soon), it has been able to push its most prized films to record nominations and various wins. It’s easy to see them backing Train Dreams in the 2026 awards race and I can’t think of a better film (at least right now) that deserves it. – Graeme Guttmann

5

Sorry, Baby

Best Original Screenplay

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Sorry, Baby

Drama

Release Date

January 27, 2025

Runtime

104 minutes

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Eva Victor, who shadowed the brilliant director Jane Schoenbrun on their acclaimed film I Saw The TV Glow, won the screenplay prize out of Sundance for their quietly devastating and incisively unique Sorry, Baby. The film follows Agnes, a college professor in New England, in the years before, during, and after a severely traumatic experience.

For anyone who used to watch Victor’s videos on Twitter, they already knew she was a comedic talent, but Sorry, Baby reveals a new layer to the multi-hyphenate. The film handles its sensitive subject matter with a deft hand, refusing to let the trauma define Agnes or the film while still deeply understanding the effect an event like it would have on a person like her.

It’s not hard to see Victor netting awards attention for her debut, which she directed and starred in as well. It’s a powerful film, one that speaks to a widely experienced trauma in a very specific way. With supporting turns from Naomie Ackie, Lucas Hedges, and John Carroll Lynch, the film is both a wonderful discovery and profoundly moving. – Graeme Guttmann

4

The Wedding Banquet

Best Adapted Screenplay; Best Actress

A remake of the 1993 romantic comedy directed by Ang Lee, The Wedding Banquet is the feel-good tearjerker of this year’s Sundance. The film has a stellar cast in stars Kelly Marie Tran, Lily Gladstone, Joan Chen, Youn Yuh-Jung, Bowen Yang, and Han Gi Chan, but it’s Tran who is the film’s standout. She gives a nuanced performance as the emotionally stunted Angela who can’t help but reject the support from her loving girlfriend, played with warmth by Gladstone.

Equally funny, specific in its experience, and emotional in its look at modern queer dynamics, The Wedding Banquet has the potential to become a widely-loved hit that rides this momentum into awards love.

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Tran is really the breakout star, but everything from its adapted screenplay to supporting turns from Gladstone, Yuh-Jung, and Chen could make waves come fall. After such a controversial awards season this year, The Wedding Banquet could be a much-needed antidote. – Graeme Guttmann

3

The Ugly Stepsister

Best International Film; Best Costumes & Hair/Makeup

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The Ugly Stepsister

Comedy

Horror

Release Date

March 7, 2025

Runtime

105 minutes

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The Ugly Stepsister surprised everyone by just how good it turned out to be. It’s a body horror with a great message and some positively gruesome moments that are sure to have people talking. The horror film could certainly gain enough traction to get a nomination at next year’s Oscars for Best International Feature. The Ugly Stepsister, a Norwegian film, got a lot of positive attention coming out of the festival. There was nowhere I went where I didn’t hear about how great it was from people — critics and general audiences alike.

In addition to nabbing an International Feature nomination, The Ugly Stepsister could also get nods for its costume design and its hair and makeup, all of which are top-tier and memorable. The film is everything Oscar voters look for in a film — it’s dramatic, gets its point across, and boasts stunning performances. Considering The Substance’s nominations at this year’s Oscars, The Ugly Stepsister has a good chance of claiming the spotlight during awards season. – Mae Abdulbaki

2

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actress, Rose Byrne

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is a rollercoaster ride of emotions. It’s surprising in its dark humor and intimate in its portrayal and perspective of Linda’s (Rose Byrne) emotional downfall. Writer-director Mary Bronstein expertly handles the subject matter and Linda’s journey, which is intense and anxiety-inducing at every turn. At the head of the film is Byrne’s stunning performance.

Byrne truly has a grasp on her character’s feelings, imbuing Linda with a sense of paranoia, fear, and weariness that permeates every scene and only escalates as the film goes on. The actress has always been good, but If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is a career-best performance for Byrne, who’s sure to be in contention when awards season rolls around. She breathes so much into her character, giving us a multidimensional portrayal that sticks with you. – Mae Abdulbaki

1

André Is An Idiot

Best Documentary

Typically, films about death are sad and emotional. André is an Idiot is a film about death that is filled with humor and defies expectations. The documentary has a sincerity embedded into its story that elevates André’s journey at every turn. It’s a surprisingly fun film and one that audiences couldn’t stop talking about at the Sundance Film Festival.

Documentaries out of the festival have had success on the road to the Oscars. Porcelain War, which debuted at the festival last year, was nominated for the 2025 Oscars, while past Sundance documentaries like 20 Feet From Stardom and An Inconvenient Truth have won Oscars in previous years. The journey from the Sundance Film Festival to the Oscars for documentaries has been fairly successful, so André is an Idiot, among others, has a good chance at being nominated in 2026. – Mae Abdulbaki

Source: https://dinhtienhoang.edu.vn
Category: Entertainment