Donald Trump Withdraws U.S. from Paris Climate Accord in Second Term: What It Means?

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Agreement is a major international effort to address climate change and its far-reaching impacts.

After the agreement was adopted in Paris on December 12, 2015, 195 countries signed it on April 22, 2016, pledging to work together to prevent global warming.

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Source: CarbonBrief

U.S. Participation in the Paris Agreement

The U.S.’s relationship with the Paris Agreement has been tumultuous. Initially, the United States was a major player when the bill was passed under the Obama administration, but there has since been a major policy shift:

• Withdrawal under Trump (2017-2020): President Donald Trump announced his withdrawal from the agreement in 2017, officially taking effect in 2020. He argued that the agreement placed an undue economic burden on the United States while benefiting rival economies.
• Return under Biden (2021): On his first day in office, President Joe Biden reversed Trump’s decision and rejoined the deal, setting out ambitious new goals to reduce U.S. climate pollution by 2035 This is a 66% decrease from 2005 levels.
• Second withdrawal (2025): President Trump withdraws from the agreement again during his second term, prioritizing domestic fossil fuel production.

Despite these reversals, the international community reiterated that the door remains open for the United States to rejoin.

What impact will the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement have on the future?

1. global influence

   • Reduce climate ambition: The United States accounts for 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is a major emitter. The overall impact of the agreement is affected by its withdrawal.
   • International cooperation weakens: The Paris Agreement depends on cooperation. If the United States withdraws, other countries may be deterred from fulfilling or strengthening their obligations.
   • Increasing global warming: If the United States does not contribute, it will be more difficult to achieve the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C or 2°C.

2. Economic and technological impact

• Changes in clean energy leadership: If countries like China and the European Union take the lead in clean energy innovation, the United States could lose market share in green technologies.
• Trade and investment impacts: U.S. trade could be affected by countries that are signatories to the Paris Agreement that impose tariffs or restrictions on goods from countries that do not share their climate goals.

3. Diplomatic influence

• The U.S.’s withdrawal weakens its global climate leadership, strains alliances, and leaves large powers such as China and the European Union to fill the leadership void.

4. Domestic impact

• State and local entities remain committed to meeting climate goals, but the U.S. risks losing green industry jobs and increasing reliance on fossil fuels.

5. Environmental impact

• Reduced U.S. efforts exacerbate climate risks (e.g., extreme weather, rising sea levels) and limit aid to developing countries that rely on support from the Paris Agreement.

How does a country withdraw from the Paris Agreement?

The Paris Agreement is an important international treaty to address climate change, allowing countries to withdraw under certain conditions stipulated in Article 28. Below is a step-by-step explanation of the exit process, timeline and implications.

Withdrawal procedures provided for in Article 28 of the Paris Agreement:

1. Eligibility for withdrawal:

• A country can only initiate withdrawal procedures three years after the agreement enters into force for it. Since the agreement came into force in 2016, this condition applies from the date it becomes binding on a specific country.

Withdrawal Notice:

• The country must submit a written notification of its decision to withdraw to the depositary (the United Nations Office of Legal Affairs in New York).

Withdrawal schedule:

• Withdrawal takes effect one year after the Depositary has received notification.
• Alternatively, the withdrawing State may specify a later date in the notification, which then becomes the effective withdrawal date.

Withdrawing from participation prior to completion:

• Until the withdrawal officially takes effect, the country remains a party to the agreement and must continue to participate in all activities under the agreement.

What are the key global governance considerations and what are their implications for exiting and rejoining the Agreement?

1. Global climate governance:

• Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement does not exempt a country from the climate challenges it faces.
• It could also affect international relations, as the agreement is a global effort that requires collective action.

Impact on exiting country:

• Exit may reflect a shift in the country’s priorities, often favoring domestic interests such as energy independence or economic policy over environmental commitments.

Rejoin the agreement:

• If a country later decides to rejoin, it must go through a formal re-ratification process, which may involve domestic legislative approval.

What are the goals of the Paris Agreement?

1. Temperature target: The agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with the more ambitious goal of limiting the increase to 1.5°C by the end of the century. The distinction underscores the urgency climate scientists emphasize about the risks associated with exceeding the 1.5°C threshold.
2. Supporting vulnerable countries: The core objective is to assist countries most affected by climate change through financial assistance, technology transfer and capacity-building initiatives.
3. Transition to clean energy: The agreement emphasizes the global need to shift to renewable energy and improve energy efficiency to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: treeaid.org

How can other countries participate in reducing emissions?

• Countries participating in the Paris Agreement commit to develop and report on their climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), every five years.
• The contributions outline how each country will reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. While NDCs are not legally binding, they provide a framework for accountability and progress.

What are the achievements and financial commitments of other countries?

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Achievements and financial commitments of other countries

• Developed country commitments: Developed countries have pledged to provide $100 billion per year to assist developing countries in their climate action efforts.
• Initiatives such as the Climate Risk and Early Warning System (CREWS) and Climate Risk Insurance are supported by donations, including $420 million from G7 countries.

What is India’s role in the Paris Agreement?

India has played a proactive role in climate action:

• Emission reduction: India has committed to reducing its GDP emission intensity by 33-35% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels.
• Renewable energy target: Renewable energy power generation reaches 175 GW by 2022, and 40% of installed capacity comes from non-fossil fuels by 2030.
• Afforestation efforts: There are plans to increase forest coverage to absorb approximately 2.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

Comparison: Kyoto Protocol vs. Paris Agreement

Details are given below:

feature	Kyoto Protocol	Paris Agreement
Differentiation	Divide countries into developed and developing countries	Unified expectations for all countries
See more : Hawk Search Optical Illusion You Need To Have A Hawk Eye To Spot The Hawk In This Picture constraint properties	Legally binding on developed countries	Non-binding, but requires regular NDC
The role of major emitters	Excludes major emitters such as China and the United States	Includes all major polluters

What are the global impacts and challenges?

• The Paris Agreement has set an important precedent for international climate cooperation, but it faces problems during its implementation.
• In the absence of binding measures, much will depend on national commitment and political will. With global temperatures expected to exceed 1.5°C by 2025, immediate action is urgently needed.

Backed by technological development and financial investment, the clean energy transition offers hope. The global clean energy market is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2024, boding well for economic growth and climate mitigation prospects.

All in all, one of the pillars of international climate policy remains the Paris Agreement. Its success depends on long-term international cooperation, challenging goals and equitable aid to weak states. The Paris Agreement is a reminder of what can be achieved through coordinated efforts as the world grapples with the effects of climate change.

Read | What are the main differences between the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol?

Source: https://dinhtienhoang.edu.vn
Category: Optical Illusion