If You Want To Predict 2025's Best Picture Oscar Winner Correctly, You'll Want To Know These 10 Stats & Trends

Predicting the Best Picture winner for the Oscars 2025 is more difficult than most years, but there are some vital stats and trends to know if you want to choose who will win correctly. This year’s nominees include Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. While each holds a technical chance of winning the Oscars 2025 Best Picture category, they are not all realistic. That’s why most of the race has revolved around Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez being the frontrunners at different points.

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Now that the 97th Academy Awards ceremony is right around the corner, if you’re like me, you want to predict what movies will win the different categories correctly. This is especially true for Best Picture. The Oscars’ biggest prize has had a very different race this year than last year when Oppenheimer easily retained its frontrunner status and dominated the awards show. With Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez doing well with nominations and precursor awards, predicting the winner isn’t easy. That’s why I’ve compiled some stats and trends to try and help sort through a competitive race.

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10

SAG’s Best Cast Winner Has Matched Best Picture Roughly 50%

A Point In Conclave’s Favor

Conclave‘s biggest precursor win came at the Screen Actors Guild Awards when it was selected as the Best Cast category winner. This category can often be seen as a strong indicator of what movie is going to win Best Picture at the Oscars. That’s only become more true in recent years. The winner at SAG has matched the eventual Best Picture winner four of the last five years, as Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All At Once, CODA, and Parasite won at SAG before getting the Oscar. That’s why Conclave‘s Best Picture candidacy improved following its SAG victory.

If you want to bet on SAG and the actor’s branch deciding the race, Conclave should be the pick. However, it’s worth noting that while SAG has a strong track record in recent years, the overall history of the correlation between the two awards is shakier. 15 of 29 movies that won at SAG went on to also win Best Picture overall. So, while the math indicates Conclave has a slight edge, that also means it’s not a lock. In fact, the last three times SAG and Oscars didn’t match, the Best Picture winner wasn’t even nominated for Best Cast.

Best Picture Suggestion: Pick Conclave

9

PGA Has Matched The Best Picture Winner 12 Of The Last 15 Years

Anora Benefits From This Trend

Anora got a major boost to its Best Picture standing when it was selected as the winner of the top prize at the Producers Guild of America Awards. The PGAs have an incredibly strong track record of predicting the Best Picture winner, as they have matched 12 of the last 15 years. The movies that won at PGA and failed to win Best Picture are 1917 (2019), La La Land (2016), and The Big Short (2015). Overall, they’ve matched 24 of 35 times. That is why Anora became the Best Picture frontrunner to many after this win.

Every Award Anora Has Won

Anora is a significant awards season performer, racking up wins from various festivals, ceremonies, and critics groups ahead of the Oscars.

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Agreeing with PGA is arguably one of the safer bets when it comes to predicting what will win Best Picture. There has only been one Best Picture Oscar winner that didn’t have a PGA nomination, so the ceremony has always had a strong connection to the Academy. That stat sinks Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here’s chances. Anora has had a steady rise late in the season to reclaim its frontrunner status seemingly, so voters aligning with the PGA winner could happen – regardless of if Mikey Madison wins Best Actress.

Best Picture Suggestion: Pick Anora

8

Winning Best Director Goes A Long Way To Winning Best Picture

The Two Awards Often Go Hand-In-Hand

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The Best Director lineup for the Oscars 2025 includes some big names who have all received their first Oscar nomination. It’s a close race between the nominees: Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown). Predicting who wins the directing Oscar could be vital to correctly getting Best Picture right. There is a strong history of Best Director and Best Picture going to the same movie, as they’ve matched 69 of 96 times previously. This includes four of the last five years.

When looking at Best Director, it appears that the race is down to Sean Baker – who won at DGA – and Brady Corbet – who won at Golden Globes and BAFTA. Whoever you ultimately choose to win Best Director, you should probably predict their movie to win Best Picture too. But you can’t do that if you’re siding with Conclave. There is certainly a world where the categories split if Corbet wins Best Director and Baker’s Anora wins Best Picture. Similarly, any argument for A Complete Unknown winning Best Picture would likely require a surprise Mangold win here.

Best Picture Suggestion: Pick Anora or The Brutalist

7

A Best Director Oscar Nomination Is Almost Always Needed To Win Best Picture

Sorry, Denis Villeneuve & Dune: Part Two

Not only is winning Best Director a great way to get a film to win Best Picture, but having a nomination in both categories is a must. There have only been six instances where a movie won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination: Wings (1927/28), Grand Hotel (1931/32), Driving Miss Daisy (1989), Argo (2012), Green Book (2018), and CODA (2021). Barring a statistical anomaly, that would essentially rule out Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, I’m Still Here, and Wicked.

Edward Berger (Conclave), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), and Jon M. Chu (Wicked) were not nominated for Best Director

The odds of the 97th Academy Awards delivering the seventh such example of this are higher than normal, though. Edward Berger was a surprising omission from the Best Director lineup, and there is clearly love for Conclave. If any of the Best Picture nominees without a Best Director nom are going to win, Conclave is the best option. Still, anyone looking for a reason to go against picking the pope drama can certainly find one with this stat.

Best Picture Suggestion: Pick Anora, The Brutalist, or Emilia Pérez

6

Winning Either Screenplay Category Can Foreshadow A Best Picture Win (Especially Adapted)

A Potential Saving Grace For Conclave

Best Director has the strongest connection to Best Director among the other categories, but winning a screenplay category is not far behind. The Best Picture winner has also won either Best Adapted or Best Original Screenplay in 61 of a possible 96 times. Adapted Screenplay is the greater predictor between the two categories, as 42 of the matches come from there, while only 19 are from Original Screenplay. Even if we narrow the scope down to more modern times, Best Picture has also won a screenplay category in 9 of the last 12 years.

With Anora possibly set to lose Original Screenplay to A Real Pain, if Best Picture matches a screenplay category this year, Conclave is the best option.

This re-opens the door for Conclave to emerge as a Best Picture winner, as it is the expected winner in Adapted Screenplay. However, it’s also worth noting that the matching has favored Original Screenplay more recently. Five Best Picture winners in the last 10 years also won Original Screenplay versus only two receiving Adapted Screenplay. But with Anora possibly set to lose Original Screenplay to A Real Pain, if Best Picture matches a screenplay category this year, Conclave is the best option.

Best Picture Suggestion: Pick Conclave

5

Only 1 Movie Has Won Best Picture & Best International Feature Film

Emilia Pérez & I’m Still Here Are Contenders In Both

Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here are long shots to win Best Picture at this point, although for very different reasons. Predicting either to win would likely mean believing they have a chance to join Parasite‘s exclusive club. Bong Joon-ho’s 2019 movie is the only film in Oscars history to win Best Picture and Best International Feature Film. Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here are nominated in both categories. Statistically, a Best Picture nomination guarantees a win in International Feature, but that won’t be the case this year with two nominees in both categories for the first time.

This is really a mark against Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here‘s odds to win. Neither film currently has enough support to believe that they can win both of these categories. Even as the Academy’s voting body expands and becomes more international, it’s still not common for foreign language films to win Best Picture.

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Best Picture Suggestion: Don’t pick Emilia Pérez or I’m Still Here

4

Only 2 Sequels Have Ever Won Best Picture

Dune 2 Won’t Become The Third

Dune: Part Two isn’t going to win Best Picture for a lot of reasons, even if you’d consider it your favorite film of the nominees, as I would. The reality is that there have only ever been two sequels to win Best Picture: The Godfather Part II and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Denis Villeneuve’s Dune 2 is the 12th sequel nominated in the category. And while it may win some below-the-line categories, the poor track record for sequels and Dune 2‘s surprisingly low position in awards season gives it no chance to win.

Best Picture Suggestion: Don’t pick Dune: Part Two

3

There’s Only Been 1 Horror Movie To Win Best Picture

Similarly, it would not be wise to predict that The Substance will win Best Picture. It has the Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Actress nominations to help its case, but its horror genre nature negatively impacts it. The Silence of the Lambs is the only horror movie to win Best Picture. The Substance is the seventh horror movie nominated in the category, so even though it has a technical chance to be the second such winner, the Oscars selecting a body-horror film as the best film of the year would be a massive shock.

Best Picture Suggestion: Don’t pick The Substance

2

10 Musicals Have Won Best Picture

Wicked & Emilia Pérez Are Unlikely To Change This

There were different points in awards season when Wicked or Emilia Pérez were viewed as frontrunners to win Best Picture and bring some more recognition for musicals. However, neither film is expected to win the category at this stage, and Oscars history shows one reason why. There have only been 10 musicals to win Best Picture. It’s become increasingly uncommon over the years too. After Oliver! won in 1968, it took another 34 years before Chicago won it all. It’s been another 22 years since then without a musical win in Best Picture.

Best Picture Suggestion: Don’t pick Wicked or Emilia Pérez

1

16 Biopics Have Won Best Picture

A Complete Unknown Gets A Slight Bump Up

If you want to believe that A Complete Unknown will win Best Picture, looking at the history of biopics could bolster your feelings. The biopic genre includes all types of films, but the Academy is prone to reward them occasionally. There have been 16 movies to win Best Picture that can be classified as a biopic, including last year’s winner, Oppenheimer. However, biopics haven’t won Best Picture in back-to-back years since 1984-1985.

Barring surprise wins in Director and Screenplay, to go along with Timothée Chalamet in Best Actor, I wouldn’t count on A Complete Unknown winning. It could do well on the Oscars 2025 preferential ballots but not enough to actually unseat a bigger contender.

Best Picture Suggestion: Be cautious about picking A Complete Unknown

Final Verdict: Predict Anora or Conclave to win Best Picture

Source: https://dinhtienhoang.edu.vn
Category: Entertainment

10 SAG’s Best Cast Winner Has Matched Best Picture Roughly 50%

A Point In Conclave’s Favor

9 PGA Has Matched The Best Picture Winner 12 Of The Last 15 Years

Anora Benefits From This Trend

8 Winning Best Director Goes A Long Way To Winning Best Picture