The 2025 Oscars will occur on March 2, 2025, and they will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. Until then, movie fans have been keeping an eye on all the biggest awards ceremonies to get hints at the Oscars’ outcome. While some of the categories have remained fairly straightforward, other Oscars races have been linked to controversy. Likewise, the predicted Oscar winners of each category have fluctuated wildly based on their performances at precursor awards shows, making it difficult to predict the outcome for many of the biggest Oscars races.
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However, the BAFTA Awards and the Writers Guild Awards which occurred over the weekend can certainly give insight into what the Oscars landscape might look like in the coming weeks. For instance, several of the races have been cemented as likely to be between two top nominees, but with several precursor awards under each of their belts, the Oscar could still go either way. Other races seem to have one clear frontrunner, such as Best Supporting Actress, who will likely take home the Oscar after a full slate of successful precursor awards.
You are watching: Oscars 2025 Race Looks Like After The Weekend’s Two Major Awards Shows: 8 Key Updates
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Best Original Screenplay
- 2 Films Came Out Ahead Over The Weekend
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Best Adapted Screenplay
- Nickel Boys Made A Strong Showing At The WGA, But Conclave Still Looks Likely
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Best Supporting Actress
- Zoe Saldaña Looks Like The Likely Winner
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Best Supporting Actor
- Kieran Culkin Has Dominated The Oscars Precursors
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Best Actor
- Brody And Chalamet Look Set To Battle It Out
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Best Actress
- There Are 2 Main Contenders
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Best Director
- Brady Corbet May Retake The Lead From Sean Baker
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Best Picture
- The Most Coveted Category Is Also The Most Uncertain
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Best Original Screenplay
2 Films Came Out Ahead Over The Weekend
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The WGAs and the BAFTAs had two different winners for Best Original Screenplay over the weekend, and both films are excellent. At the WGAs, Sean Baker won Best Original Screenplay for Anora, while at the BAFTAs, Jesse Eisenberg took home the award for A Real Pain. These two wins are not altogether surprising as they are considered the two most likely winners at the Oscars, with the chances falling slightly in Anora’s favor.
Only Anora and A Real Pain were nominated at the WGAs, maintaining their advantage in voters’ minds.
Both Anora and A Real Pain have had success in many of the smaller critics’ circles across the country and internationally, so both have a fairly good chance of taking home the Oscar in March. However, it would be remiss to exclude The Substance from the conversation about Best Original Screenplay as the film won Best Original Screenplay at the Critics’ Choice Awards. The other two nominated films are The Brutalist and September 5. Interestingly, out of the Oscars nominees, only Anora and A Real Pain were nominated at the WGAs, maintaining their advantage in voters’ minds.
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Best Adapted Screenplay
Nickel Boys Made A Strong Showing At The WGA, But Conclave Still Looks Likely
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The Oscars and the BAFTAs each had the same lineup of nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay, with the current predicted Oscars winner being Conclave. Both ceremonies nominated Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and Emilia Pérez. Fittingly, Conclave ended up taking home the award at the BAFTAs yesterday, matching the predicted Oscars win. Conclave has already won the Critics’ Choice Award and Golden Globe for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Screenplay, respectively.
Given that Conclave has won almost all the major Oscars precursors and many awards from critics’ circles, it seems safe to say that the weekends’ awards ceremonies have cemented its place as the Oscar frontrunner. However, the WGAs did throw in a twist when Nickel Boys took home the award. The WGA had several different options to the Oscars and BAFTAs, with the nominees being Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown, Wicked, Dune: Part 2, and Hit Man. While the WGA can be a good indicator and Nickel Boys is certainly well-written, Conclave remains on top.
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Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña Looks Like The Likely Winner
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At the 2025 BAFTAs, Zoe Saldaña took home the award for Best Supporting Actress after being nominated alongside Selena Gomez, Ariana Grande, Felicity Jones, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Isabella Rossellini. While all the nominees gave great performances in their respective movies, this BAFTA win continues Zoe Saldaña’s winning streak. Saldaña has already won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress, so Zoe is currently the stand-out in the Best Supporting Actress Category going into the SAG Awards and the Oscars.
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Zoe Saldaña won the tight Best Supporting Actress race with Ariana Grande at the Golden Globes, making the same result at the Oscars seem likely.
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Additionally, though the BAFTAs can differ from the Oscars quite a bit in some categories, in recent years, the BAFTAs have been a correct indicator of who would win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar seven out of 10 times. While this is not a perfect track record, it does mean that the BAFTAs are a very good indicator. Especially considering that the BAFTAs are more likely to award British actors, which was true for the three Best Supporting Actress differences, Zoe Saldaña’s win makes her Oscars chances seem even stronger.
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Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin Has Dominated The Oscars Precursors
If there is one category that has seemed set since the announcement of the nominees, it is Best Supporting Actor. Kieran Culkin has run away with the majority of the attention and the majority of the precursor awards, now including the BAFTA. The nominees in the category are Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain, Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown, Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice, and Yura Borisov in Anora. These nominees were the same for the BAFTAs with the addition of Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.
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Unsurprisingly, Culkin (or more accurately Eisenberg on behalf of Culkin) took home the BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor given that he has already won the Golden Globe, National Board of Review, and Critics’ Choice Awards for his performance. Including both major awarding bodies and smaller critics’ circles, Culkin has received over 50 nominations for his portrayal of the free-spirited yet complex character Benji. Of course, an upset could still occur at the Oscars and see Pearce of Norton take the award, but Culkin looks very well positioned at the moment.
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Best Actor
Brody And Chalamet Look Set To Battle It Out
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The 2025 Best Actor category has some incredible nominees, but unfortunately, only one will be able to take home the Oscar. Right now, that seems to be between Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown and Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. The other nominees in the category are Ralph Fiennes, Sebastian Stan, and Colman Domingo, and the BAFTAs added Hugh Grant to that same list. While none of the other nominees got any closer to winning, the race between Chalamet and Brody may have just gotten even tighter after Brody took home the BAFTA.
If Timothée Chalamet wins, he will become the youngest Best Actor winner of all time, taking the record from Adrien Brody himself, who earned it after winning for The Pianist in 2003.
On paper, Adrien Brody seems like the most likely winner due to his success at the Critics’ Choice Awards and Golden Globes along with the BAFTAs. However, Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan is truly incredible, and his audience appeal could help with voters. What’s more, The Brutalist may be slightly hindered by the recent AI controversy which revealed that Brody’s voice was altered to allow him to achieve the right accent. Though it seems that this has mostly blown over, it does mean that Brody’s BAFTA win will help bring more positive attention to him going into the SAG Awards and Oscars.
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Best Actress
There Are 2 Main Contenders
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The 2025 Oscars Best Actress race has been one of the most interesting categories this awards season because of how frequently the predictions have gone back and forth between two major nominees. Currently, Demi Moore for The Substance and Mikey Madison for Anora are getting the most attention. Demi Moore won at the important precursors, the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, but Madison took home the BAFTA. Likewise, Mikey Madison won the most precursor wins from critics’ circles, making it a very difficult race to call.
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Moore and Madison are joined in the Oscars category by Karla Sofía Gascón, Fernanda Torres, and Cynthia Erivo, who have each received acclaim for their performances. While many early Best Actress predictions saw Gascón leading the way, her troubling behavior has effectively removed her from the running. While Torres and Erivo are both great performers, they currently do not have the precursor wins that would put them over the edge. The upcoming SAG Awards may make the race between Moore and Madison clearer, but for now, fans will have to wait.
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Best Director
Brady Corbet May Retake The Lead From Sean Baker
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Like several of the other biggest categories, Best Director has been somewhat hard to pin down, and that trend has continued after Brady Corbet won the BAFTA. The Best Director race at the 2025 Oscars is made up of great contenders who each have nominations in other categories. However, Sean Baker for Anora and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist seem to be garnering the most attention at the Oscars precursors. In addition to the BAFTA, Corbet also won the Golden Globe for Best Director. In contrast, Sean Baker took home the award from the DGA.
In the past 10 years, the BAFTA Best Director winner and the Oscars Best Director winner have matched up seven times, giving Corbet a solid chance.
While both Baker and Corbet both have very strong chances going into the Oscars, Corbet’s BAFTA win does give him the edge. In the past 10 years, the BAFTA Best Director winner and the Oscars Best Director winner have matched up seven times, giving Corbet a solid chance. Overall, while Sean Baker began as the predicted winner as Best Director, Brady Corbet may currently have a slight advantage.
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Best Picture
The Most Coveted Category Is Also The Most Uncertain
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All the Oscars categories are interesting, but Best Picture often gets the most attention, and this year that is at least partially due to the various controversies that have surrounded several of the leading nominees. At this point, the 2025 Best Picture race remains somewhat uncertain. While Emilia Pérez seemed like the favorite for a while, it has fallen out of favor, and Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave have taken the top three predicted spots. At the 2025 BAFTAs, Conclave won the Best Film Award, but the category is not always indicative of the Oscar winner.
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Conclave is undoubtedly a great movie, but The Brutalist and Anora still have the edge, especially given the BAFTAs’ preference for British films gave Conclave an advantage it may not see at the Oscars. Since Anora is one of the strongest movies of the year overall, and The Brutalist won Best Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes, those two still seem like the likely movies to watch out for at the Oscars, with Conclave trailing slightly behind. With the Best Picture race remaining up in the air for the next few weeks, the 2025 Oscars will no doubt be exciting.
Oscars
Location
Los Angeles, CA
Dates
March 2, 2025
Network
ABC
Website
https://www.oscars.org/
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Category: Entertainment