The 2025 Oscar nominations have been announced, revealing the 10 Best Picture nominees. The group includes Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. These ten movies all hope to win the 2025 Oscars Best Picture category. While all of them technically have a shot at winning thanks to this recognition by Academy Awards voters, not every nominee is in an equal standing. That dramatically impacts the probability of various titles winning.
Now that the Best Picture nominees are known, the awards season debates turn to how serious of a contender each of them is. Emilia Pérez‘s 13 nominations are the most for any movie this year, while other nominees in the Oscars’ biggest category only have one or two other nominations. Having a high nomination count can help make a film a Best Picture frontrunner, as was the case last year with Oppenheimer. However, CODA‘s win a few years ago also proves there is room for films with smaller overall nomination counts to emerge victorious.
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It’s up to Academy Award voters to rank the 2025 Best Picture Oscar nominees from worst to best as they fill out the preferential ballot. However, every recognized title does not have the same opportunity to win. Some of these films are favorites to win, but others may just be happy to be 2025 Oscar nominees for various reasons.
In any case, a tier ranking of the Oscars 2025 Best Picture nominees can be made. We’re splitting the ten nominees into five categories. Just Happy To Be Nominated are films unlikely to win that get more recognition through a nomination. Genre Movies Hoping For An Oscar Breakthrough are distant contenders from genres the Oscars typically do not award. The Darkhorse Contender is a film with several nominations and a case to win. Serious Contenders are films with 8+ nominations and a path to win. Then, The Favorites are the movies most likely to win.
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Just Happy To Be Nominated
Nickel Boys, I’m Still Here
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Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here are the two Best Picture nominees for the 2025 Oscars that are the most surprising. The former is RaMell Ross’ drama based on a true story that has had limited visibility during the awards season beyond Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ screenplay. The latter is Brazil’s entry for Best International Feature Film. It has made some waves, most notably Fernanda Torres’ Golden Globes win, following the initial reception at Venice that gave the film a Golden Lion nomination.
The Best Picture nominations for Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here are warranted. Both films are widely acclaimed, and this recognition will hopefully lead to more people being able to and willing to check them out. There’s clearly enough support for each within the Academy to get a nomination here, but that doesn’t mean either has a realistic chance to win Best Picture.
The real win for Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here is the exposure the nominations bring
Nickel Boys would need a miraculous late-season campaign pushed by Amazon MGM Studios to do so. While Amazon pulled off a Best Picture nomination before with Manchester by the Sea, it did not win. Nickel Boys will be in a similar boat with only two Oscar nominations. I’m Still Here is also just happy to be nominated after earning three nominations overall. It’s in a much better spot to win Best International Feature or Best Actress than Best Picture. The real win for Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here is the exposure the nominations bring.
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Genre Movies Hoping For An Oscars Breakthrough
Dune: Part Two, The Substance
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The Academy Awards do not have a great history of rewarding authentic genre fare with Best Picture wins. The Substance is only the seventh horror movie nominated for Best Picture. Sci-fi movies and franchise sequels do not generally fare well, which hurts Dune: Part Two. Both movies hope to be exceptions to the nearly 100-year history of the Oscars. And there’s love for both within the Academy. Dune 2 and The Substance got five nominations a piece, which helps their cases.
Dune 2 is arguably in a worse position than The Substance following the nominations, even if they are in the same tier here. Denis Villeneuve once again missed out on a Best Director nomination. The sequel even missed Adapted Screenplay and Editing, which were two categories the original Dune got recognized for. If there is a case to be made for Dune 2, it has to hope Everything Everywhere All At Once‘s Best Picture win did more than we realized. The big difference is Dune 2 lacks momentum in any major categories to win and support a Best Picture trophy.
As for The Substance, the odds are also still stacked against it to win the big prize. It overperformed based on the original expectations for the movie, but its five nominations overall are impressive. Demi Moore’s path to win Best Actress is a big boost towards a win. If The Substance really wants Best Picture, it will need to take either Best Director or Best Original Screenplay (if not both). That does not seem plausible right now. Still, this nomination is another major victory for the body horror film no one really thought would be an Oscar contender initially.
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The Dark Horse Contender
Wicked Is Still In A Good Spot
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Wicked‘s Oscar chances have been heavily debated since its release. There was a point where the movie felt like a favorite to win after its National Board of Review Best Film win. The momentum has slowed down some since then, especially after not winning the Best Musical or Comedy category at the Golden Globes. And yet, Wicked absolutely qualifies as a dark horse contender to win Best Picture.
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The Broadway musical adaptation cemented its status as a major Oscar contender during the nominations. Wicked got 10 Oscar nominations overall. While it missed in Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, the recognition for Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande is big. Wicked may be better positioned at the moment to win several below-the-line categories than take home any major award, but that’s not a bad spot to be in either.
It would really help if Ariana Grande could win Best Supporting Actress
Any wins that Wicked gets in below-the-line categories could help voters get more comfortable with the idea of having it win Best Picture. That’s partially how Chicago became the last musical to win Best Picture. It had 13 nominations and won six Oscars, four of which came in technical categories. Wicked could win in both Production and Costume Design categories, with Sound, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score, and Visual Effects also a possibility. It would really help if Ariana Grande could win Best Supporting Actress.
If voters want a feel-good movie to win, that could be Wicked. But it still does not seem to be something that’s really expected or likely. The musical would need to gain a lot more traction somehow to really break through unless the preferential ballot proves to be in its favor.
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Serious Contenders
Conclave, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown
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Now we’ve entered the upper echelon of contenders to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars. All the previous films would be surprising winners to various degrees. But that’s not the case for Conclave, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown. Each movie has the necessary Oscar nominations elsewhere to support a Best Picture win and has paths to winning a few categories that could massively boost their odds. The Brutalist has 10 nominations, while Conclave and A Complete Unknown have 8.
|
2025 Best Picture Oscar Nominee |
Number Of Nominations |
|---|---|
|
Emilia Pérez |
13 |
|
The Brutalist |
10 |
|
Wicked |
10 |
|
A Complete Unknown |
8 |
|
Conclave |
8 |
|
Anora |
6 |
|
Dune: Part Two |
5 |
|
The Substance |
5 |
|
I’m Still Here |
3 |
|
Nickel Boys |
2 |
In addition to all of these movies sharing a Best Picture nomination, they are all represented in Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and one of the Screenplay categories. The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown have a Best Director nomination Conclave missed. The Brutalist and Conclave got Editing, Production Design, and Score nominations A Complete Unknown didn’t. Conclave and A Complete Unknown earned Costume Design nominations over The Brutalist. Furthermore, A Complete Unknown got the only Sound nomination of the bunch, and The Brutalist is the only one in Cinematography.
There is certainly a world where each of these movies wins Best Picture. The full effects of The Brutalist‘s AI controversy are yet to be made clear, but its path to victory lies with Corbet and Brody winning Director and Actor. If Guy Pearce or Felicity Jones can flip either supporting category, its momentum will be clear. Conclave could be aided by the preferential ballot, but Edward Berger missing for Best Director hurts. Conversely, James Mangold’s nomination bolsters A Complete Unknown. If Timothée Chalamet does win Best Actor, it could help push the Bob Dylan biopic over the top.
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The Favorites
Anora, Emilia Pérez
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Anora and Emilia Pérez belong in a category of their own in terms of the 2025 Best Picture Oscar nominees. Anora only has six nominations overall, which feels low compared to the rest of the titles. However, it did not miss any major category it was predicted for. Its potential to win Actress, Director, Editing, and Original Screenplay would make Anora‘s Best Picture win quite obvious. The movie has been viewed as a frontrunner for the most significant category for months, and that status is only reinforced by how it’s done so far.
Emilia Pérez‘s status is a bit different. If you look at any metric attempting to measure the consensus on the film, the best that can be said is that it is mixed. The movie has this negative momentum working against it, as well as the mythical Netflix bias. However, Emilia Pérez‘s 13 nominations make it abundantly clear that Oscar voters are massive fans of all aspects of the film, just as many other awards bodies have been. There is a very real possibility that Emilia Pérez will be Netflix’s first Best Picture-winning movie.
It’s too early to truly tell which of these movies will win Best Picture, but it seems they are in a different league from the other contenders. The Brutalist may belong here if not for its controversy and higher potential to do worse on the preferential ballot. Emilia Pérez‘s mixed reception could ultimately hurt it, but so far, that is not the case. That may mean we’re heading for an Anora vs Emilia Pérez showdown to determine who will win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars.
Source: https://dinhtienhoang.edu.vn
Category: Entertainment