Who Will Win At The Oscars 2025: Our Locked-In Predictions From The Data, Previous Awards & Betting Odds

It’s time to make our final Oscars 2025 predictions ahead of the 97th Academy Awards ceremony on March 2, 2025. The biggest night in Hollywood brings to a close one of the tightest awards seasons in recent memory. A year after Oppenheimer dominated at the Oscars with seven wins off 13 nominations, there is no clear-cut frontrunner positioned to win a large number of categories. Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Brutalist, Conclave, and A Complete Unknown have the most nominations this year, with Anora and others a bit further behind.

Over a month after the Oscars 2025 nominations were announced, all the major precursors are now done. That means there is a lot of data, previous awards shows, pundit predictions, betting odds, and more to sift through when it comes to predicting what movies will win each category. I’ve already gathered up some useful stats and trends to know to predict Best Picture, but there’s even more out there for the rest of the categories. And while I’ve written individual pieces on a few categories with final predictions, these are the overall final predicted results.

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Best Picture

Predicted Winner: Anora

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By most accounts, Best Picture will come down to Anora or Conclave, as The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and others are longer shots. This is the result of Anora winning at PGA, DGA, and WGA, as only one movie has ever won all three and not won Best Picture. Conclave‘s wins at BAFTA and SAG are notable and prove that it still has a very real shot to win, especially as the pope drama is a more traditional winner choice for the Academy than the sex worker romantic drama.

The betting market reflects this position in the race, as Anora is -200 to win Best Picture on DraftKings, while Conclave is +225. That means the money is literally on Anora to win Best Picture. And after the movie’s big comeback with late season wins – including its dominant weekend at PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice – it’s arguably the safe bet. While I’m confident in predicting Anora to win, if you’re looking for better odds and expecting an upset, Conclave or The Brutalist are seemingly next up in terms of the predicted Oscars 2025 Best Picture winner.

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Best Director

Predicted Winner: Sean Baker (Anora)

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The Best Director category at the Oscars 2025 is a close two-man race between Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). It’s a tough call to make considering Baker won at Critics Choice and DGA, while Corbet won at Golden Globes and BAFTA. That suggests Corbet’s film may play better with international voters, which could help give him an edge. However, 69 of 96 Best Director winners came from the Best Picture-winning movie, and DGA has the best track record. Since I’m going with Anora to win Best Picture, it only makes sense to go with Baker in Director.

There could be some sense in hedging your bets and splitting Best Picture and Best Director in some fashion, but that’s not what I predict will happen. DraftKings gives Baker the edge too. The Anora filmmaker is -175 compared to +135 for Corbet. That’s about as tight of a race as you’ll see, so this could really go either way. I’m ultimately going with the DGA track record to support the prediction and the overall momentum Anora has compared to The Brutalist.

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Best Actress

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore (The Substance)

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Demi Moore and Mikey Madison jockied back and forth in terms of being the frontrunner for Best Actress over the last several weeks. Demi Moore took the reins at Golden Globes with her win and proceeded to win elsewhere. She had all the momentum before Mikey Madison’s win at BAFTA brought some late drama. But with Moore winning at SAG, my gut is still that she’ll be the Oscars 2025 Best Actress winner. She’s got the stronger career narrative and could be one of the few times The Substance is recognized during the Oscars.

Mikey Madison’s odds are not that bad, though. She sits at +165 on DraftKings, which comfortably puts her in second place behind Moore, who is -250. If you want to think that Anora is going to win the majority of the categories its nominated in, it makes sense to pick Madison to win. However, it is worth noting that there have only been 12 movies to win Best Picture and Best Actress. That piece of history adds more credence to the belief that Demi Moore will win Best Actress.

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Best Actor

Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

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The Oscars 2025 Best Actor race is down to Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). It’s arguably one of the tougher categories to predict too. Previous awards shows give Brody a strong path towards a victory. He’s won awards at BAFTA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and more. Meanwhile, Chalamet’s only major precursor win came at SAG, as he didn’t make up as much ground in light of The Brutalist‘s AI controversy. That really should point me to predict that Adrien Brody will win Best Actor.

I can’t shake the feeling that Timothée Chalamet will be on the receiving end of a bit of a surprise win on Oscars night

And yet, I can’t shake the feeling that Timothée Chalamet will be on the receiving end of a bit of a surprise win on Oscars night. SAG has correctly predicted the Oscars’ Best Actor winner 24 of 30 times previously. Chalamet’s case is a bit different than before, as no actor has won an Oscar with SAG being their only major precursor win. That’s still not enough to push me away from a predicted with for one of Hollywood’s brightest young stars. DraftKings‘ odds give him a fair shot too, as Chalamet is +150 to win, while Brody is -250.

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Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

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Best Supporting Actress is one of the easiest categories to predict a winner this year. Zoe Saldaña has swept through the precursors with wins at SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. Ariana Grande never broke through as some predicted, leaving the Emilia Pérez star as the clear frontrunner in this category. This reality is made evidently clear through the betting odds on DraftKings, as Zoe Saldaña is -2500 to win the Oscar. There’s absolutely no reason to believe a different outcome is coming here.

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Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

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Similar to Best Supporting Actress, the race for Best Supporting Actor has been wrapped up for some time. Kieran Culkin will win the Oscar for A Real Pain. It’s an absolute certainty at this point after he also swept through SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. He’s an even bigger favorite to win the Oscar than Saldaña is, as Culkin’s odds on DraftKings sit at -3500. That makes him the biggest favorite across all Oscars categories. Picking anyone other than Culkin to win Best Supporting Actor would not be wise.

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Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Anora

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The love for Anora could deliver the film a Best Original Screenplay win too. The movie is in close competition with A Real Pain, as the scripts by Sean Baker and Jesse Eisenberg have both received awards earlier. A Real Pain‘s win at BAFTA provided some additional reasons to pick the film to win this category. However, Anora regained its status as the frontrunner with a WGA win. This is reflected in the betting odds, as Anora is -250 to win versus A Real Pain sitting in third place at +450 behind The Substance at +300.

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Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Conclave

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No matter what happens in Best Picture, Conclave will walk away with at least one Oscar. It is my predicted winner for Best Adapted Screenplay after a strong showing all awards season. It won at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes. The only reason it didn’t win at WGA is that it was not eligible, allowing Nickel Boys to get some recognition. That doesn’t change much here, as Conclave is -1000 to win Best Adapted Screenplay. This will be one vote Cardinal Lawrence will be pleased with.

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Best Animated Feature

Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot

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After Flow and The Wild Robot both looked like possible Best Animated Feature winners in the past, my final prediction goes in DreamWorks’ favor. It is the most widely seen movie between the two, but it also has some awards pedigree already. The Wild Robot dominated at the Annie Awards and won at Critics Choice. Flow would be in a better position after winning the Golden Globe if it also won at BAFTA, which went to Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl instead. The Wild Robot is the betting favorite too at -340, but Flow is still at +225.

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Best International Feature Film

Predicted Winner: I’m Still Here

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Fernanda Torres might not win Best Actress, but I’m Still Here is my predicted winner in Best International Feature Film. It’s still in a close race with Emilia Pérez, as both films are also Best Picture nominees. In fact, Emilia Pérez has better precursor wins with Golden Globes and BAFTA. So why chose I’m Still Here? The backlash to Emilia Pérez‘s controversies could be more felt with the Academy than abroad. Plus, I’m Still Here is the betting favorite at -200 compared to Emilia Pérez at +140.

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Our Predictions For The Remaining Awards

There Are 13 More Categories To Predict

Those are the main 10 categories for the Academy Awards, but there are still more categories left to predict winners for. Below is some more information on the below-the-line, documentary, and shorts categories.

Best Film Editing – Conclave

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Conclave is my predicted winner in Best Film Editing this year. The movie has the best betting odds at -165 to win after winning at BAFTA. This is still a close race, though, as Anora would not be a major surprise to win after some precursor success. It has the second-best odds at +175.

Best Cinematography – The Brutalist

The Brutalist has been near the front of the pack for cinematography for some time, and that does not change now. It won the cinematography category at BAFTA and got the top prize from the British Society of Cinematographers. Add in that its -340 to win, and The Brutalist looks like the favorite to win, hence my prediction.

Best Production Design – Wicked

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Wicked might miss out on some bigger categories, but it should at least win a few below-the-line Oscars. Best Production Design is the first I’m predicting. Wicked won this category at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Art Directors Guild Awards, giving it three strong precursor wins. It’s also the favorite on the betting market at -400 to win. If an upset comes, Nosferatu could emerge.

Best Costume Design – Wicked

I’m also comfortable predicting Wicked to win in Best Costume Design. The movie won at Critics Choice and BAFTA, as well as for Best Fantasy Film at the Costume Designers Guild Awards. It’s an overwhelming favorite with betting odds at -2000 thanks to the fantastic work done creating the various costumes.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling – The Substance

The Substance is in a great position to win the Oscar for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. It won the category at BAFTA and Critics Choice, and it also went home with two wins at the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild Awards. That’s made it a strong favorite with bettors at -1400 to win. The next closest is Wicked at +600, but I expect the wins to be spread around a bit more so The Substance can leave the ceremony with multiple Oscar wins.

Best Original Song – “El Mal” – Emilia Pérez

Best Original Song was always likely to go to Emilia Pérez in some fashion. Zoe Saldaña’s number “El Mal” appears to be the favorite to win over Selena Gomez’s song “Mi Camino.” It was the winner at Critics Choice and Golden Globes. “El Mal” also has the best betting odds at -310. A potential upset could come with Dianne Warren’s “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, which has +400 odds, and won at the Society of Composers & Lyricists Awards.

Best Original Score – The Brutalist

The Brutalist is my predicted winner in Best Original Score. It is responsible for wins at BAFTA and the Society of Composers & Lyricists. It’s also the betting favorite at -400, which helps add more confidence to the pick.

Best Sound – Dune: Part Two

Dune: Part Two might not win Best Picture, but it will likely still become an Oscar winner. Best Sound is one category that it has a good chance to win. It’s biggest wins came at BAFTA and the Golden Reel Awards. The movie is the odds-on favorite to win at -400, with Timothée Chalamet’s other movie, A Complete Unknown, having the second-best odds at +350. Denis Villeneuve’s first Dune also won this Oscar category previously, so it should repeat.

Best Visual Effects – Dune: Part Two

Similarly, Dune: Part Two has had a strong performance ahead of the Oscars in the VFX department. It won at BAFTA and Critics Choice, but the most important performance came with four wins at the Visual Effects Society Awards. Academy members have already shown their favor to Dune in this category with the 2021 film’s win. I have no doubt that the franchise will secure its second win in this department.

Best Documentary Feature – No Other Land

No Other Land is the apparent frontrunner to win Best Documentary Feature. It’s betting odds are at -165 to win after winning at the Gotham Awards and International Documentary Association Awards. The documentary showcasing Palestinian activists during the Palestine-Israel war has generated a lot of support. However, Porcelain War is also a strong contender at +150 after documenting the fallout of the Ukraine war.

Best Documentary Short Subject – The Only Girl In The Orchestra

The Only Girl In The Orchestra is my pick to win Best Documentary Short Subject. The documentary about bassist Orin O’Brien has Netflix’s support and is currently streaming on the service to give it more publicity. It has the second-best odds to win at +260, with I Am Ready Warden the favorite at +100.

Best Animated Short Film – Yuck!

I’m going with Yuck! to win the Best Animated Short Film category. The French animated short has the second-best odds to win at +350, as Wander to Wonder is the favorite at -100 after winning at BAFTA. This short story about young love may just resonate better with voters.

Best Live-Action Short Film – A Lien

Finally, I’m predicting A Lien to win the Best Live-Action Short Film. It is produced by Academy Award nominee regular Adam McKay, which should help bolster its standing with voters. On DraftKings, it is tied at +150 with The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, so this really could go either way. As for my personal Oscars 2025 predictions, A Lien is where I’m siding.

Source: https://dinhtienhoang.edu.vn
Category: Entertainment